Jordan is a small country, trapped among bullying Syria, the confused Palestinian Authority, powerful Israel, and messy Iraq. Although Jordan may not be an issue for Americans pondering the repercussions of a pullout from the war zone, it is important for U.S. policy-makers—it always has been, and for the foreseeable future it will continue to be. Any president pondering his many bad options for Iraq must keep Jordan in mind.

Back in 1998, when the U.N. Security Council decided to impose more sanctions on Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the Hashemite kingdom was exempted. The United Nations ignored Iraq’s illegal oil sales to its eastern neighbor, because no other country was willing to furnish Jordan with the cheap oil it badly needed. When the United States decided to invade Iraq, it was clear that Jordan would not be part of the mission. “It is too dangerous for Jordan to risk its political stability in joining a U.S.-led invasion,” Kenneth Pollack wrote in his influential book The Threatening Storm.

Jordan is swamped with Iraqi refugees, more than 750,000 of them. When “real” Jordanians are asked about the new immigrants, they sometimes insist on adding the adjective “temporary,” but officials admit that getting rid of the newcomers will be hard. They open restaurants, they purchase houses. They are Sunnis, running away from Shiite expansionism and violence. If the United States leaves Iraq and a civil war gets out of hand, who knows how many more will come. One Democratic legislator, visiting with a Jordanian official not long ago, was told that “we will need to mobilize most of our military to the border” in the case of an American withdrawal. The Democrat responded by hinting that more aid in the form of equipment that can be used to seal the border is the help America will be willing to give. But if that isn’t enough, America will give even more.

Source: Slate